ODESSA

ODESSA is a project aiming at delivering stochastic forecasts of the Black Sea's biogeochemistry. To reach that goal, the uncertainty in the coupled physical and biogeochemical model NEMO-BAMHBI will be studied by means of ensembles of models, where each member undergoes random perturbations of systematically chosen key processes. During ODESSA, a suite of new and optimized methods to generate the perturbations will also be developped. The uncertainty estimates will be validated using real observations and probabilistic metrics; the predictability of the stochastic system will also be studied.